SSD prices to stay high until 2030 due to NAND shortage

SSD prices won’t drop for several years. Phison’s CEO estimates that NAND supply won’t catch up with demand until around 2030, due to long factory construction timelines.

A shortage that’s here to stay

The rise in SSD and other storage component prices continues in 2026, with no short-term return to normal in sight. Pua Khein-Seng, Phison’s CEO, confirms that demand — driven in particular by AI infrastructure — far outstrips available supply. New NAND production sites will take four years to become operational after launch, pushing any improvement back to 2030.

This situation stems from the complexity and cost of semiconductor plants. As Sumit Sadana, Micron’s executive, points out, memory fabs aren’t built as quickly as AI data centers. Result: manufacturers struggle to keep up, despite ongoing investments.

Prices up, revenues soaring

The NAND shortage is driving up average selling prices (ASP), benefiting manufacturers. In Q2 2026, the combined revenue of the top five market players surged 77% from the previous quarter, reaching $68.87 billion. Demand for AI server SSDs, in particular, keeps pressure on inventory.

For Q3 2026, TrendForce expects this trend to continue: smartphone and PC demand remains weak, but AI server demand more than compensates. Manufacturers are prioritizing DRAM and HBM investments, further limiting NAND production capacity.

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Consumers on the front line

Phison, like other players, is redirecting resources toward enterprise and AI markets at the expense of consumers. Already high consumer SSD prices could keep rising. In August 2026, a 1 TB portable SSD like the Verbatim, typically sold for $300, is on sale for $150 — a price still above pre-shortage levels.

AI servers’ storage needs, far greater than traditional models, are worsening the situation. Unlike DRAM, where lighter AI models could ease pressure, NAND remains essential for storing the massive data generated by these infrastructures.

“It will take four years for new production capacity to catch up with demand.” — Pua Khein-Seng, Phison CEOTranslated from French

With such long production timelines and unrelenting demand, consumers will have to get used to high SSD prices. The NAND shortage isn’t a passing phase but a long-term trend shaping the market until the end of the decade.